Why Develop Scenarios?
The future's not set in stone and there are many ways it could play out. There is value in taking the time to discuss what we think might happen in the future. By doing this, we will realize that each of us carries different assumptions — yet, none of us know exactly what will happen.
Amidst this uncertainty, we have the opportunity to influence, design and create the future we want, and the future that aging adults want, for how and where to live, heal and age. Building housing is a long term commitment, thus it’s important to try to imagine the world a decade or even more into the future to ensure we are pursuing any opportunity with intention and paying close attention to changing trends and circumstances rather than using today’s reality to plan for future decades.
To do this, we use scenarios. Scenario development is a structured process for deepening our understanding of how the future might unfold so we can more deliberately design the futures we prefer. Shell Oil is a pioneer in using future scenarios for business planning by imaging a world 50-100 years in the future where fossil fuels are no longer the primary source of energy. While we may not be looking that far into the future, housing projects also have a long-term planning horizon and building a shared view of the future can inform an organization’s view on how best to create the most desirable outcome.